Macro data
Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Brent/URAL differential2 $/b
Model refining margin3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD/PLN5 PLN
EUR/PLN5 PLN
January February March April May June July August September October November December
47.90 58.10 55.90 59.80 64.30
12.60 11.00 14.10 13.80 14.60
1.80 1.30 2.00 1.60 1.40
6.20 6.90 9.40 9.00 9.00
821.00 654.00 764.00 925.00 1042.00
3.69 3.68 3.81 3.73 3.66
4.28 4.18 4.13 4.02 4.08
Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Brent/URAL differential2 $/b
Model refining margin3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD/PLN5 PLN
EUR/PLN5 PLN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
53.90
12.60
1.70
7.50
746.00
3.73
4.19
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1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

3) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland

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