Macro data
Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Brent/URAL differential2 $/b
Model refining margin3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD/PLN5 PLN
EUR/PLN5 PLN
January February March April May June July August September October November December
47.90 58.10
12.60 11.00
1.80 1.30
6.20 6.90
821.00 654.00
3.69 3.68
4.28 4.18
Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Brent/URAL differential2 $/b
Model refining margin3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD/PLN5 PLN
EUR/PLN5 PLN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

3) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland

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