Macro data
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Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential $/b
of which: Brent/URAL differential3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD / PLN5 PLN
EUR / PLN5 PLN
January February March April May June July August September October November December
47.9 58.1 55.9 59.8 64.3 61.7 56.5 46.6 47.6 48.6 44.3 38.2
12.6 11.0 14.1 13.8 14.7 16.7 16.2 17.2 13.2 11.1 13.5 11.2
8.0 8.2 11.4 10.6 10.4 12.5 12.2 12.8 9.2 7.4 10.1 7.2
1.8 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.2 2.4
821 654 764 925 1042 1137 1181 1147 1017 937 949 1015
3.69 3.68 3.81 3.73 3.66 3.71 3.78 3.77 3.75 3.78 3.96 3.95
4.28 4.18 4.13 4.02 4.08 4.16 4.16 4.19 4.22 4.25 4.25 4.29
Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 unit
Brent crude oil price $/b
Model downstream margin1 $/b
Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential $/b
of which: Brent/URAL differential3 $/b
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t
USD / PLN5 PLN
EUR / PLN5 PLN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
53.9 61.9 50.5 43.8
12.6 15.1 15.5 12.0
9.2 11.3 11.4 8.2
1.7 1.5 1.5 2.7
746 1036 1113 959
3.73 3.70 3.77 3.89
4.19 4.09 4.19 4.26
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1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland

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