Macro data
Macroeconomic data – average: 2019 unit
 Brent crude oil price  $/b
 Model downstream margin1  $/b
 Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential  $/b
  Brent/URAL differential3  $/b
 Model petrochemical margin4  EUR/t
 USD/PLN5  PLN
 EUR/PLN5  PLN
January February March April May June July August September October November December
 59.5  64.0  66.1  71.3                
 9.2  9.7  11.1  10.5                
 3.6  4.4  5.9  6.0                
 0.0  0.3  0.4  -0.2                
 916  876  868  862                
 3.76  3.80  3.80  3.81                
 4.29  4.32  4.30  4.29                
Macroeconomic data – average: 2019 unit
 Brent crude oil price  $/b
 Model downstream margin1  $/b
 Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential  $/b
  Brent/URAL differential3  $/b
 Model petrochemical margin4  EUR/t
 USD/PLN5  PLN
 EUR/PLN5  PLN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
 63.1      
 10.0      
 4.6      
 0.2      
 885      
 3.79      
 4.30      
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1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland

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