Macro data
Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 unit
 Brent crude oil price  $/b
 Model downstream margin1  $/b
 Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential  $/b
  Brent/URAL differential3  $/b
 Model petrochemical margin4  EUR/t
 USD/PLN5  PLN
 EUR/PLN5  PLN
January February March April May June July August September October November December
 54.8  62.2  65.6                  
 5.9  6.7  8.5                  
 1.1  1.8  3.0                  
 0.6  1.5  2.2                  
 889  1011  1232                  
 3.73  3.72  3.86                  
 4.54  4.50  4.60                  
Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 unit
 Brent crude oil price  $/b
 Model downstream margin1  $/b
 Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential  $/b
  Brent/URAL differential3  $/b
 Model petrochemical margin4  EUR/t
 USD/PLN5  PLN
 EUR/PLN5  PLN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
 61.1      
 7.1      
 2.0      
 1.5      
 1044      
 3.78      
 4.55      
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1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland

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