INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2018 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 69.2 | 65.2 | 65.9 | 71.8 | 76.9 | 74.3 | 74.3 | 72.6 | 78.9 | 81.2 | 64.7 | 57.4 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 9.9 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 4.7 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b |
0.6 | 1.9 |
2.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
1.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 872 | 925 | 908 | 864 | 809 | 878 | 884 | 875 | 851 | 847 | 970 | 937 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.41 | 3.37 | 3.41 | 3.42 | 3.62 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 3.77 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.16 | 4.17 | 4.21 | 4.19 | 4.28 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.31 | 4.30 | 4.29 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2018 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 66.8 | 74.4 | 75.2 | 68.8 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 11.4 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 4.0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b |
1.6 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 5.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.8 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 902 | 853 | 870 | 921 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.40 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 3.77 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.18 | 4.26 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland