Fresh insights into CEE’s energy transition

The ORLEN Group has prepared the first report dealing so comprehensively with the pace and trajectories of Central and Eastern Europe’s energy transition. The examination of the region’s energy markets helps comprehend its potential while underscoring its specific conditions in comparison with the rest of the EU, influenced by geopolitics and wealth levels, among other factors. The complete report is available at future.orlen.pl

The energy transition pathways for the region until 2050 were formulated based on the prevailing regulations and aspirations voiced by the eleven countries of Central and Eastern Europe, plus Germany and Austria. The analysis unfolds across two scenarios, one assuming that the countries will adhere to their current energy and climate commitments (Current Plans) and the other depicting a situation in which they decide to pursue bolder visions (Higher Ambitions). The report thoroughly outlines opportunities and challenges faced by these countries’ economies, driven by both their environmental goals and the imperative of ensuring long-term energy security.

The CEE Energy Outlook report scrutinises the departure from fossil fuels in each country within the region, while highlighting the potential of emerging technologies to facilitate this transition. It also includes extensive projections for shifts in transport, a pivotal sector alongside industry in meeting climate neutrality targets.

An essential aspect of the report is the identification of regional security challenges, which have gained prominence in the aftermath of the full-scale military conflict in Ukraine. Russia’s earlier incursion into Crimea prompted Central and Eastern Europe to undertake the necessary preparations, which allowed the region to swiftly wean itself off Russian energy supplies. The region now confronts the imperative of long-term energy security and sustained reorientation of its energy policy. In this context, the role of the Baltic Sea, a significant supply route for the entire region throughout the energy crisis, which in addition holds considerable potential in renewable energy generation, emerges as particularly important.

A noteworthy conclusion to be drawn from the report is that there is no direct transposition of Western transition models onto CEE markets, as evidenced by the diverse paths towards climate neutrality adopted by each country. Nevertheless, the report attempts to articulate a shared perspective and goals for the region’s countries, along with potential areas where they could collaborate. CEE Energy Outlook is the most comprehensive publicly available study of Central and Eastern Europe’s energy markets.