New LNG carriers have joined the ORLEN fleet, enabling us to ensure stable and flexible LNG deliveries sourced from around the world. But why is gas a cornerstone of Poland’s energy security and what role does it play in the transition of our national energy system?
Poland stands at a pivotal moment of its energy transition. Our strategic goal is to ensure the nation’s energy security and build its independence in the access to energy. We are pursuing this goal by expanding our portfolio of domestic renewable sources, stepping up production from our own gas fields, and establishing new import routes for gas and oil. These efforts help reduce our exposure to the risk of supply disruptions from a single direction – a critical concern in today’s context of geopolitical tensions affecting the region.
Our objective is to maintain the stability of the power system and keep energy prices as low as possible, while simultaneously advancing climate-related targets.
At the foundation of these efforts lies natural gas. This fuel allows us to develop renewable energy sources (RES), such as utility-scale photovoltaic and wind farms. By producing electricity from gas, we reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared with coal-based generation. In doing so, we also stimulate economic growth, both nationally and regionally.
Let’s examine the details:
- the role of gas in Poland’s energy generation,
- the sources of gas consumed in Poland,
- climate and security impacts of gas,
- economic benefits that can be derived from the use of gas.
The stability of a country’s energy system means, in practice, a guaranteed and continuous power supply – in other words, generation levels that reliably meet national demand. Increasingly, we are achieving this by generating electricity from renewables such as wind and solar. These are the cleanest and most cost-effective sources of energy, and – what is more – immune to geopolitical pressures. However, their growing share in the energy mix poses a challenge due to their weather-dependent variability. Yet our need for energy does not vanish when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. The answer to this challenge lies in gas, and specifically – in gas-fired power plants. High-efficiency combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) can rapidly ramp up generation volumes on windless or cloudy days, helping to balance the system during periods of low RES output.
Gas consumption in the power sector
In 2024, the share of renewables in Poland’s electricity generation mix reached a record high of 29.6%, while coal’s contribution fell to 57%. According to projections by Poland’s power grid operator PSE, the consumption of gas as a power generation fuel will more than quadruple by 2034, with gas-fired capacity rising from the current 4 GW to between 9 and 12 GW.
Energy mix 2024
Energy mix 2030
Energy mix 2050
Over the coming years, many aging and inefficient coal-fired units will need to be phased out. At the same time, demand for electricity is on a steadily upward trend. Our task is thus to close the so-called generation gap – building modern capacity to replace obsolete coal-based infrastructure and meet the rising consumption needs.
Poland’s electricity demand and potential extent of the generation gap
In 2023, electricity consumption in Poland reached 167.5 TWh, while its production totalled 163.6 TWh, resulting in a minor shortfall covered by imports. However, driven by the electrification of transport, heating and industry, electricity consumption keeps growing at an annual rate of approximately 1–2%. By 2030, demand is expected to reach 180–190 TWh, and by 2040 potentially as much as 200 TWh, according to estimates by PSE and the Energy Forum.
source: PSE, Energy Forum
Forecast rise in demand for electricity
źródło: PSE, Forum Energii
In 2023, Poland’s installed generation capacity was 67.8 GW, with approximately 49% based on coal, 40% on renewables, and 7% on gas. Under Poland’s Energy Policy 2040 (PEP2040), the share of coal in electricity generation is set to fall to 56% by 2030, and to nil by no later than 2049. This implies the retirement of at least 10–15 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2035. In addition, the limited flexibility of renewables during low-wind or overcast periods (such as in winter) means the system may lose as much as 10–15 GW of instantaneous capacity on certain days.
source: PSE
Forecast rise in demand for gas-fired generation
source: PSE
In summary:
- The potential generation gap may reach 10–15 GW by 2030 and as much as 20–25 GW by 2040 if no new sources are developed.
- Gas-fired units will play a crucial role in bridging this gap.
- The technology, particularly high-efficiency CCGT plants, can swiftly adapt to changing demand and fluctuating renewable output.
- Their startup time is just a few minutes – unlike for coal plants, where it may take hours.
- In 2023, gas contributed 11 TWh of electricity. However, its role is set to grow: PSE forecasts an increase in gas-fired capacity to 9–12 GW by 2034, potentially delivering 30–40 TWh annually.
Poland has diversified both the sources and directions of natural gas supply, having achieved full independence from Russian imports – a critical step toward enhanced energy security. Direct imports of Russian gas have been cut short. This move was made possible through strategic infrastructure investments and contracts with alternative suppliers.
Key sources of gas include:
Domestic production
In Poland, several billion cubic metres of gas are produced annually, the majority of which comes from the ORLEN Group’s domestic fields. In 2024, ORLEN’s domestic production amounted to some 3.3 billion cubic metres, comparable to 2023 levels.
Seaborne imports
The LNG terminal in Świnoujście has reached a throughput capacity of 8.3 billion cubic metres per year. The deliveries it receives originate primarily from the United States and Qatar, but also from other countries including Norway and Egypt. ORLEN’s LNG import capacity will grow by an additional 6 billion cubic metres annually with the launch of the FSRU terminal in Gdańsk, scheduled for 2028.
Baltic Pipe
This pipeline enables the import of gas from Norway via Denmark to Poland, with an annual capacity of about 10 billion cubic metres.
Interconnectors
Connections with Lithuania, Slovakia, Germany and Ukraine increase the flexibility of supplies from European markets
Diversification efforts, further supported by the expansion of gas storage capacity (from 3.3 to 4.1 billion cubic metres by 2027), will ensure the stability of supply even during crises such as blackouts or global price shocks. Additionally, by 2030, the ORLEN Group aims to increase its own domestic and international production from 8.6 to 12 billion cubic metres per year. This strategy will eliminate the risk of politically induced supply disruptions.
Natural gas emits 50–60% less CO₂ than coal when used for electricity generation, making it a vital transition fuel on the path toward climate neutrality. In Poland, the replacement of coal with gas in power generation and heating systems meaningfully reduces the carbon footprint. CCGT plants achieve efficiency levels above 50%, compared with around 30% for coal-fired plants, resulting in lower fuel consumption and emissions.
Moreover, replacing coal stoves with gas for household heating dramatically improves air quality, eliminating particulate matter and toxic compounds. On a nationwide scale, the use of gas in the power generation and heating sectors helps cut emissions of CO₂, SO₂, NOx and PM2.5, supporting the EU’s climate-related targets and public health.
Security, climate, and economic growth impacts
Energy security
Gas provides system flexibility and stability, minimising the risk of power shortages, especially as coal is phased out. Source diversification reducing reliance on any particular suppliers has proven critical since 2022, amid the geopolitical crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine.
Climate
By reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality, natural gas supports the goals of the Paris Agreement and EU climate policy (targeting a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030). Moreover, it serves as a bridge to future technologies such as biomethane and hydrogen, which can be integrated into existing gas infrastructure.
Economic growth
Investments in gas infrastructure (e.g. the Baltic Pipe, LNG terminals) and new gas-fired power plants generate thousands of jobs and boost GDP growth. Gas also strengthens Poland’s position as an energy hub, facilitating energy exports and cross-regional cooperation (e.g. with Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia). The transport sector, particularly the expanding LNG and CNG refuelling network (45 stations in 2023, a 30% addition in five years), contributes to a broader modernisation of national economy.
Conclusions
- Natural gas is an indispensable component of Poland’s energy transition, ensuring the system’s stability, security of supply and emission cuts.
- Its role as a fuel complementary to renewable capacity and a transitional replacement for coal will be critical over the next 20–30 years, until zero-emission technologies such as nuclear or hydrogen are deployed at scale.
- To maximise these benefits, we are accelerating investment in CCGT units, diversifying supply sources, and ramping up our own production.
- We are also developing transmission infrastructure and advancing biomethane and hydrogen technologies based on existing gas networks.
- Gas is not an end in itself, but a strategic instrument – one that will allow Poland to achieve climate neutrality while maintaining its energy security and fostering regional economic growth.