INVESTOR RELATIONS

Macro data

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Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Brent crude oil price $/b 54.8 62.2 65.6 64.7 68.7 73.0 75.0 70.8 74.6 83.7 81.4  
Model downstream margin1 $/b 5.9 6.7 8.5 10.7 10.3 8.7 8.9 10.9 9.6 8.5 7.4  
Model refining margin2+ Brent/URAL differential $/b 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.5 3.3 2.9 4.0 5.8 6.4 7.9 4.9  
Brent/URAL differential3 $/b 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5  
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t 889 1011 1232 1469 1492 1458 1356 1321 1267 1186 1274  
USD/PLN5 PLN 3.73 3.72 3.86 3.82 3.73 3.74 3.86 3.88 3.88 3.96 4.08  
EUR/PLN5 PLN 4.54 4.50 4.60 4.57 4.53 4.50 4.56 4.57 4.57 4.59 4.65  
Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 unit Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Brent crude oil price $/b 61.1 69.0 73.5  
Model downstream margin1 $/b 7.1 9.8 9.8  
Model refining margin2 + Brent/URAL differential $/b 2.0 3.5 5.4  
Brent/URAL differential3 $/b 1.5 2.0 2.3  
Model petrochemical margin4 EUR/t 1044 1473 1318  
USD/PLN5 PLN 3.78 3.76 3.87  
EUR/PLN5 PLN 4.55 4.53 4.57  

1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland