INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2012 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 110.6 | 119.6 | 125.3 | 119.5 | 110.2 | 94.8 | 102.6 | 113.4 | 112.9 | 111.6 | 109.1 | 109.4 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 4.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 5.6 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 529 | 607 | 700 | 765 | 819 | 740 | 536 | 594 | 752 | 751 | 719 | 716 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.39 | 3.16 | 3.13 | 3.17 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 3.41 | 3.3 | 3.22 | 3.17 | 3.22 | 3.12 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.38 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.18 | 4.31 | 4.30 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.11 | 4.13 | 4.10 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2012 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 118.6 | 108.3 | 109.5 | 110.1 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 3.3 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 4.4 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.6 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 5.5 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 618 | 772 | 625 | 729 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.23 | 3.33 | 3.31 | 3.17 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.14 | 4.11 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland