INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2008 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 92 | 95 | 103.7 | 109 | 123 | 132 | 133 | 113 | 98 | 72 | 53 | 40 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 1.9 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 8.6 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 755 | 765 | 746 | 702 | 617 | 565 | 698 | 809 | 823 | 895 | 799 | 576 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.45 | 2.43 | 2.28 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.07 | 2.19 | 2.35 | 2.70 | 2.92 | 2.97 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.61 | 3.58 | 3.54 | 3.45 | 3.41 | 3.38 | 3.26 | 3.29 | 3.37 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 4.02 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2008 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 97 | 121 | 115 | 56 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 3.6 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.7 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 6.5 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 756 | 627 | 779 | 783 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.39 | 2.18 | 2.20 | 2.86 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.58 | 3.41 | 3.31 | 3.78 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland