INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2019 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 59.5 | 64.0 | 66.1 | 71.3 | 71.1 | 64.1 | 64.0 | 59.0 | 62.8 | 59.7 | 63.0 | 67.0 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 9.2 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 3.6 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
0.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
1.9 | 1.5 |
0.1 |
3.0 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 916 | 876 | 868 | 862 | 898 | 949 | 856 | 892 | 821 | 820 | 774 | 754 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.76 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.81 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.91 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.88 | 3.84 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.29 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.27 | 4.26 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2019 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 63.1 | 68.9 | 62.0 | 63.1 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 10.0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 9.1 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 4.4 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.6 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 885 | 906 | 859 | 785 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.79 | 3.81 | 3.88 | 3.87 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.30 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 4.29 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland