INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 47.9 | 58.1 | 55.9 | 59.8 | 64.3 | 61.7 | 56.5 | 46.6 | 47.6 | 48.6 | 44.3 | 38.2 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 12.6 | 11.0 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 17.2 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 13.5 | 11.2 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 6.2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 8.0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 7.2 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 821 | 654 | 764 | 925 | 1042 | 1137 | 1181 | 1147 | 1017 | 937 | 949 | 1015 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.96 | 3.68 | 3.81 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 3.77 | 3.75 | 3.78 | 3.96 | 3.95 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.28 | 4.18 | 4.13 | 4.02 | 4.08 | 4.16 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.29 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2015 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 53.9 | 61.9 | 50.5 | 43.8 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 12.6 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 12.0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 7.5 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 9.2 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 8.2 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 746 | 1036 | 1113 | 959 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.73 | 3.7 | 3.77 | 3.89 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.19 | 4.09 | 4.19 | 4.26 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland