INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2009 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 44 | 43 | 47 | 50 | 57 | 68 | 65 | 73 | 67 | 73 | 77 | 74 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 7.7 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 485 | 483 | 533 | 516 | 490 | 454 | 564 | 559 | 690 | 643 | 571 | 566 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.17 | 3.63 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 3.23 | 3.21 | 3.06 | 2.90 | 2.86 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.83 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.22 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 4.31 | 4.13 | 4.16 | 4.22 | 4.17 | 4.14 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2009 |
unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price |
$/b | 44 | 59 | 68 | 75 |
| Model downstream margin (1) |
$/b | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) |
$/b | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) |
$/b | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential |
$/b | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) |
EUR/t | 500 | 487 | 601 | 600 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.45 | 3.27 | 2.94 | 2.82 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.50 | 4.45 | 4.20 | 4.17 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland