INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2020 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 63.5 | 55.4 | 31.8 | 18.5 | 29.0 | 40.1 | 43.4 | 44.8 | 40.8 | 40.2 | 42.7 | 49.9 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 8.5 | 9.8 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.3 |
2.7 |
-0.7 | -1.6 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 762 | 812 | 982 | 944 | 843 | 774 | 808 | 833 | 847 | 838 | 841 | 842 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.83 | 3.92 | 4.01 | 4.18 | 4.16 | 3.95 | 3.89 | 3.72 | 3.79 | 3.86 | 3.80 | 3.68 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.25 | 4.28 | 4.44 | 4.54 | 4.53 | 4.44 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.47 | 4.54 | 4.50 | 4.48 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2020 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 50.1 | 29.6 | 42.9 | 44.2 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 11.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.4 |
0.1 |
-0.1 | 0.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 845 | 846 | 828 | 840 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.92 | 4.09 | 3.80 | 3.78 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.33 | 4.50 | 4.44 | 4.51 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland