INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2013 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 113 | 116.2 | 108.4 | 101.9 | 102.4 | 102.9 | 108 | 111.3 | 111.9 | 109.1 | 108 | 110.8 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 10.3 | 12.9 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 744 | 709 | 755 | 789 | 694 | 712 | 688 | 715 | 762 | 769 | 706 | 726 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.11 | 3.12 | 3.21 | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.25 | 3.27 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.14 | 4.17 | 4.16 | 4.14 | 4.18 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.23 | 4.24 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.18 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2013 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 112.5 | 102.4 | 110.3 | 109.3 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 12.5 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 737 | 729 | 719 | 736 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.15 | 3.22 | 3.21 | 3.07 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.19 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland