INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2014 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 108.3 | 108.9 | 107.6 | 107.6 | 109.6 | 111.7 | 106.6 | 101.6 | 97.3 | 87.4 | 78.9 | 62.5 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 9.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 11.9 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 5.9 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 762 | 753 | 751 | 746 | 740 | 736 | 782 | 807 | 750 | 835 | 830 | 871 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.07 | 3.06 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 3.06 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.32 | 3.38 | 3.42 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.18 | 4.18 | 4.20 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.15 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.21 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2014 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 108.2 | 109.6 | 101.9 | 76.6 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 9.5 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 1.3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 2.7 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 756 | 741 | 782 | 844 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.06 | 3.04 | 3.15 | 3.37 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.19 | 4.17 | 4.18 | 4.21 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland